End of the NFL? (SV)

January 24, 2010

Well, that was fun. The Bengals brought the Queen City some entertainment and enjoyment throughout most of their season and invigorated a bit of optimism for the team's future.

The problem is, there might not be much of a future – at least not an immediate one – for the Bengals or any other team in the NFL.

The league’s collective-bargaining agreement with players is set to expire after the 2010 season, and the negotiations on a new one in time to play the next season seem as bleak as the Mayan calendar. The fear is that owners won’t agree on the percentage of team revenue that the players demand and will lock out the players without a new agreement in place. A worst-case scenario is no NFL football in 2011 and beyond.

A best-case scenario is that everything remains as is; a salary cap and salary floor stay in place, ownership shares specific types of revenue and parity among teams remains the league's strength. The two sides sit down for 20 minutes, agree that nothing needs to be changed and go have drinks.

Of course, it won't work out that way. Before his untimely passing in 2008, Gene Upshaw – former executive director of the NFL Players Association (NFLPA) and Hall of Fame lineman – said that, once the salary cap disappeared, it would never be agreed upon by the NFLPA again. The owners have already voted to opt out of the last two years of the current agreement, which means no salary cap next season and potentially no football after that.

So what does it mean for the Bengals?

First and foremost, without a cap, players ending their initial contracts (signed out of college) are now restricted free agents until their sixth season, rather than after four. A player drafted in 2005 by the Bengals, entering his sixth season, can still be signed by another team, but the Bengals can match any offer and prevent him from signing elsewhere. Should the player leave Cincinnati, his new team would also have to compensate the Bengals with draft picks.

That means Brandon Johnson, Frostee Rucker, Dennis Roland and others who would have been unrestricted to sign wherever they chose are now are essentially “stuck” with their team.

The other quirk in 2010 brought on without a cap is teams get to franchise-tag two players instead of one. The franchise tag is very unpopular with players because it restricts their open-market value even more than restricted free-agent status does. Franchise-tagged players receive a one-year contract equaling the average of the five top-paid players at that position (Shayne Graham was paid around $2.5 million last season under the terms of the franchise tag). Other teams can sign tagged players, too, but must give up two first-round draft picks in compensation. This would be near suicide for any team and is rarely worth trying.

That means the Bengals could tag Graham again and tag Tank Johnson or other unrestricted free agents this off-season. But on the list of Bengals unrestricted free agents – Graham, Johnson, Roy Williams, Reggie Kelly, Larry Johnson and others – not one seems worth the hefty price of a franchise tag.

That frees up money to get someone else then, right? Well, maybe. I always assume owner Mike Brown would rather work with what he's already got than spend a lot on outside improvements. Signing Laveranues Coles last off-season has been a huge letdown thus far, and it makes sense that management might be wary of making that mistake again. But there are some alluring names at wide receiver that will be tossed around by fans and media as nice fits with Cincinnati.

Some Bengals fans will surely clamor over the verbose and illustrious Terrell Owens, and I could see why. He's a big target who remains a difficult match-up despite the fact that his career is firmly in its twilight. Brown is well known for providing a home for explosive personalities cast off by other teams, and TO perfectly fits the mold. Owens is beyond the big-paycheck phase of his career, and if he chooses to play again next year, his motivation would likely be driven by a potential championship and not by personal glory.

The big-market teams might try to make a serious splash by overpaying lots of free agents in light of no salary cap, but Brown and the Bengals can't compete that way. Nabbing one or two crucial pieces to make a run for next season makes more sense than financially strapping the team on a superstar contract for years to come, especially if there truly is only one year left.

The NFL has enjoyed about 12 years of a fantastic pro-sports league that provided hope for every team’s city that this was their year, and intoxicating this country with its sport. Football won't die completely –America needs it – but serious change is afoot, and it's hard to think that it will be better than it is now. Here's to the Bengals of next year, because we can't see beyond that.